GIULIANI MIGHT WIN

With Giuliani in it to win it, don't be surprised if he does
By DAVID YEPSEN


After months of delay, Rudy Giuliani has finally placed a bet on the Iowa caucuses.

The former New York mayor said Tuesday he'll compete in the Iowa Republican presidential caucuses, and he actually stands a fair chance of winning them, despite the chatter he's too liberal on social issues for the party's religious conservatives.

Giuliani made his first campaign trip to Iowa on behalf of himself Tuesday. He told a crowd of several hundred at Valley High School in West Des Moines, "I am running for president of the United States, and I am running in Iowa, and we're going to win Iowa."

A new poll of likely Republican caucus-goers released Wednesday indicates that is a doable proposition. The survey taken March 30 to April 1 by Strategic Vision, an Atlanta public-relations firm that has done work for Republicans in the past, shows Giuliani leading the pack of GOP presidential candidates in the state, despite his relatively late start here.

The poll of 600 likely GOP caucus-goers has him leading with 25 percent of the vote and John McCain in second with 20 percent.

For months now, conventional wisdom has said Giuliani would fade as Republicans learn of his liberal positions or divorces. That hasn't happened, and it raises the possibility that many social conservatives are looking at other things or character traits as they choose a candidate to back in 2008.

The nation is at war. We are selecting the first new president after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, and those two facts change the issues that are foremost in voters' minds. Also, after their losses in 2006, Republicans are growing worried about holding onto the White House in 2008, which may make them a bit more pragmatic.

(Even in past campaigns, Republican activists have never selected the most conservative candidates in a race as their caucus choice, just as Democrats have never chosen the most liberal ones from their field.)

And perhaps social conservatives are dividing their support among the other candidates courting them, which could enable Giuliani to rally more moderate GOPers and win.

A form of that has happened before. In 1980, George H.W. Bush won the Iowa GOP caucuses when conservatives split among several others.

Ted Sporer, the Polk County Republican chairman, who is neutral in the 2008 presidential race, said it's too early to predict winners but "right now, Giuliani and (John) McCain are the strongest in Iowa."

He said while there are small groups of vocal social conservatives who criticize Giuliani, "I think the level at which social conservatives control the Republican Party is really exaggerated. As a party leader, I can tell you I don't see that to the extent people believe that it's true.

"Giuliani will compete here and will do very well. He will be one of the high finishers in Iowa, barring something unforseen."

Diane Crookham-Johnson, a GOP leader from Oskaloosa who had been helping George Pataki before he faded, is now neutral in the presidential race, but said, "Giuliani has struck a chord with people in Iowa. There are issues beyond social issues that people are concerned about, and they see some of those in him. They see his approach to crime in New York and taxes. I hear people say he really is a Republican on those issues."

She said Republicans are growing concerned about keeping the White House in 2008. "Just recently I'm hearing people say, 'We need somebody who can beat Hillary.'"

But, she said, "He's got to spend a lot more time in Iowa and a lot of time with people one on one, because in the end, it's still about turning out to our neighbors' houses" on caucus night.

Giuliani told the crowd at Valley High School he intends to do just that.

"I want to assure you we will be back in Iowa," he said. "I'm going to run in Iowa the way I ran in New York City. I know you think New York City and Iowa are very different," but running for mayor of New York City and running in an Iowa caucus campaign are "very similar."

"You run every day," he said. "I walked the streets, did 93 town-hall meetings. I had people come up to me and tell me, 'Mayor, you're doing a great job. Or, Mayor, you stink...'

"I'm used to that. I like that. I love doing it, and I love people. We're going to win the caucus and suprise everybody."

He may win. But it should no longer be a surprise.